As the Formula One season finale closes approaches, Lando Norris has six more races to overturn the championship lead of Max Verstappen. The Brit clinched victory last time out in Singapore, but how likely is it that he can overhaul the Dutchman’s 52-point advantage?
In the six remaining races, Lando Norris must on average score 8.7 points more than Verstappen per race to overcome the deficit. If Verstappen were to finish second in every race and sprint remaining, he’d cling onto his title by a solitary point, should Norris score the maximum points available, so in theory it’s out of Norris’ hands.
Total points race-by-race
Of course, it’s never that simple, but if Norris can manage it, it would be the biggest points gap ever overturned at any stage the championship since the current points system was introduced in 2010.
Verstappen has been in a similar position himself, and has the record of the biggest gap overcome, overturning Charles Leclerc’s lightening start in 2022 to wrestle the title away with relative ease, despite at one stage being 46 points behind.
10 years earlier, the Red Bull, of Sebastian Vettel, chipped away a 44-point lead from Ferrari’s Fernando Alonso. If Norris steals grabs the title this year, he will have done so despite being 84 points behind Verstappen after the Austrian GP, a significantly bigger deficit.
Biggest points gaps ever overturned
He won’t have it easy however, the 3-time world champion has won at every single one of the remaining venues at least once, whilst Norris hasn’t won at any. Prior to Norris’ win in Miami, Verstappen had won the last six Grand Prix in the United States, and will be visiting twice more in the run in. Also coming up is Verstappen’s best track statistically, as he has won on five separate occasions around the Mexican GP circuit.
It’s not all grim reading for the McLaren man though. Qatar is also coming up, a race where last year Norris’ teammate Oscar Piastri was one of only two men in 2023 to beat a Red Bull in a race as he beat Verstappen to the flag in the sprint. This is a place where Norris can expect to take a significant chunk out of Max’s lead, especially if his teammate and potentially the Mercedes’ and Ferrari’s finish ahead too.
With the Papaya car the now quicker package, it may very well come down to who can handle the pressure better. Verstappen has been here before, overcoming the tensest of battles as he overtook Lewis Hamilton on the final lap of the season to claim his maiden title in 2021. Norris meanwhile is new to this type of expectation and has a reputation for throwing away points he must take if he is to be the one crowned as the flag falls in Abu Dhabi.
