With seven games left of the League Two season, Tranmere Rovers currently sit in the final play-off spot in the league table.
They are on same points as Bristol Rovers, Newport and Port Vale directly above them on goal difference.
There are a mere seven points between second-placed Exeter City and tenth-placed Sutton, meaning competition at the top end of the table is rife.
The three automatic promotion places are anybody’s guess at this point, although runaway leaders Forest Green Rovers look set for League One, despite a hiccup in their form of late.
This leaves two more automatic promotion places conceivably up for grabs, as well as the four playoff places.
Having been in and around the promotion spots for a large chunk of the season, Tranmere supporters will see anything other than promotion as a failure, but how likely is it looking for Micky Mellon’s boys?
The Run-In
Tranmere have seven matches remaining this season.
They will face only two teams currently in the top half of the table, fellow promotion-chasers Bristol Rovers and Exeter City.
Both of these top-end-of-the-table clashes will be at Tranmere’s Prenton Park.
Carlisle United and Oldham Athletic will also travel to the Wirral.
The remaining fixtures are made up of trips to Bradford City, Stevenage and Leyton Orient.
Next up is 18th-placed Carlisle, who have failed to get a single point from Tranmere in the last five matches.
Anything other than a win here would be unacceptable for a side with aspirations of returning to League One.
This will be especially important as Bristol Rovers are the in-form side in League Two right now, having won their past four.
The two sides have only faced three times since 2014, but Tranmere have failed to win a single one.
A win would significantly strengthen Tranmere’s promotion chances, but a draw would be entirely acceptable here.
Losing would surrender a lot of ground to a promotion rival in a classic ‘six-pointer’.
Bradford are another side Tranmere have only faced three times since 2014, but the Super White Army have emerged victorious from the last two meetings.
Bradford will likely have very little to play for by this point as they are not particularly relegation-threatened, which should benefit Tranmere in pursuit of victory.
Following Bradford will be the other clash of the high-flyers, with Exeter travelling to the Wirral.
Tranmere have beaten Exeter in five of the last six meetings, although the one loss they have suffered in this time was a heavy 5-0 drubbing.
Head-to-head history suggests that, in conjunction with home advantage, this will be a great opportunity for Tranmere to win and cement themselves in the automatic promotion places rather than the playoffs.
Stevenage and Tranmere never faced each other until 2011, and their clashes have been entirely inconsistent since then.
Tranmere have won four, Stevenage three, and there have been six draws.
This one should come down to form, which should be a positive for Tranmere as Stevenage have slipped down into the relegation zone in recent weeks.
Never discount a side fighting for their lives, however, especially at home.
The final home match of Tranmere’s season will be Oldham.
Tranmere haven’t lost to Oldham at home since 2010 and Oldham have lost their last five matches in League Two.
It is more than likely that Oldham will have been relegated by the time the two face each other, leaving them with nothing to play for and Tranmere with no excuses not to win.
The last day of the season will see Tranmere travel to Leyton Orient, a side who they have lost five of the last seven against.
Since the turn of the decade, the two sides have beaten each other twice apiece.
This is a tough fixture for Tranmere and if there hopes rest on the final day, they could well be disappointed.
Leyton Orient will probably be safe by the time this fixture rolls around, however, which is an advantage for Tranmere.
The Factors
Speaking to Merseysportlive, Tranmere fan Max Paterson cited Jay Spearing’s fitness as the key to the rest of Tranmere’s season.
Sure enough, with Spearing starting Tranmere are averaging 1.81 points per game, compared to 1.18 in matches he did not feature in.
Tranmere’s recent dwindling form has come at a time when Spearing has been injured, and with him set to return in the coming fixtures, this could be the spur that the side needs to get them over the line in their pursuit of promotion.
There is also somewhat of a chasing pack in terms of the promotion race.
While the discussion is largely surrounding Exeter, Northampton, Bristol Rovers and Tranmere, it would take a brave individual to discount the likes of Newport County, Swindon Town, Sutton United, Port Vale and even Mansfield.
For the purpose of looking up rather than down, as one would hope the Tranmere payroll is, I won’t consider their seasons in too much detail, but Newport for example, beat Tranmere 4-2 only weeks ago and sit only a point behind them.
With the small matter of a single slip-up being the difference between Tranmere and most of these teams, it is not only the sides above them that they will need to best as the season draws to a close.
The Prediction
Of the sides above Tranmere, Northampton have the easiest run-in on paper.
They will face Exeter at home, meaning at least one of these sides will drop points, which Tranmere will look to take advantage of.
Outside of the Exeter match, their toughest match is 10th-placed Mansfield.
You would expect Northampton to go on to secure second place based on their remaining fixtures.
This would mean that the other sides will battle it out for third place in order to avoid the lottery of the playoffs.
Exeter and Bristol Rovers have tougher run-ins than Tranmere on paper, each facing four sides in the top half of the table.
Based on this, it seems incredibly likely that the clashes between Tranmere and these two sides will be what ultimately decides the promotion race.
Should Tranmere avoid defeat in both matches, they will be in a great position.
A win in either would be a huge advantage.
Defeat at the hands of Bristol Rovers is entirely possible based on current form, but we would expect victory over Exeter.
Amongst these results I see mostly wins coming, but the likes of Bradford, Stevenage and Leyton Orient are capable of taking two points off the Super White Army.
You might be taking an overly cautious view with these predictions.
Tranmere could easily turn any of those draws into wins and are capable of avoiding defeat against Bristol Rovers, but should Tranmere finish the season with four wins, three draws and a defeat, they will end on 78 points.
2019 was the last time 78 points would’ve been enough to secure automatic promotion, but in the past decade it would not have been enough more times than it would have.
However, with the table as tight as it is and a number of the teams at the top still to play each other, it’s plausible we will see a notably low points total secure promotion.
Any one of nine teams could secure promotion should they put together a late run of form, and the points total required is entirely unpredictable.
It’s going to be tight, but with their most difficult fixtures coming at Prenton Park, third place is Tranmere’s to lose.
