Tranmere go into tomorrow’s clash with Barnet with just one win in their last eight games. The Rovers sit 18th in League Two, five points off the drop.
This is how a Mersey Sport Live data dive found Andy Crosby’s side should line-up if they were to follow the ‘Moneyball’ data method used primarily in US sports.
The US ‘Moneyball’ method relates to the 2011 Brad Pitt film where a struggling Oakland As Baseball team used nothing but numbers on a screen to turn their season around.
Goalkeeper:
Last time out against Barrow, it was the loan signing Jack Barrett between the sticks. It was only the 23-year-old’s second game for the club, both in the Vertru Trophy.
The young keeper made one save, won 100% of his aerial duels and made four clearances. However, his passing was weaker, successfully completing 47% of long balls.
With the Rovers number one Luke Mcgee undergoing hip surgery last month, Crosby said he (Barrett) “wants to play league football.”
The last five games have seen the 44-year-old Joe Murphy in net:
Source: Fotmob
He has a 6.96 out of 10 average rating this season according to Fotmob, with the pick of the bunch at home to Cambridge United in a 0-0 draw.
He was man of the match with an 8.2 rating, completing one save, three punches, six recoveries and two high claims, commanding his box in an exemplary way.
Barnet have scored in every one of their last 11 games and have a large attacking presence, so this game may be too much for Barrett and despite his midweek performance, it should be Murphy who starts.
Defence:
Tranmere play a 5-2-3 or a 3-4-3 when in possession so really utilise their wingbacks in an attacking sense.
Crosby has led with Omari Patrick on the left and Cameron Norman on the right, and the partnership has brought some success.
Partrick has six goals and three assists in 10 games, averaging a 7.80 rating according to Fotmob this season.
Norman has one goal and two assists from the right flank, meaning the pair combined make up 43.75% of the teams goals this season, and subsequently have to start.
Omari Patrick Cameron Norman
Source: Sofascore
Tranmere have had 49.7% possession this season according to Sofascore. Meaning much of the play goes through the anchor in the back five, and in Crosby’s side, Jordan Turnbull.
The 30-year-old has 76.9% pass accuracy and a 48.1% long ball accuracy. Despite Tranmere’s heavy use of the wings, the Englishman still has a big responsibility in the centre of the three.
Each side of him, Nathan Smith and Patrick Brough are statistically the best suited pairing to cope with the leagues high pace and physicality.
Many teams will attempt to drop the ball in the pocket between the wingbacks and the right and left centre backs as they know Norman and Patrick are going to be out of position if they turn the ball over quickly.
Smith has won 65.8% of his duels according to Fotmob. He has made 15 interceptions, made six tackles, blocked nine shots and has scored two goals in the first 10 games.
Brough has won 58.8% of his duels, made 21 recoveries, made 20 tackles and has only been dribbled past four times.
Midfield:
Nohan Kenneh:
Richard Smallwood:
Source: Footy Stats
Smallwood and Kenneh have stood out from the rest so far this season.
As shown above, the two complement each other well on the pitch, with Kenneh taking more of a sweeping defensive midfielder, number six role.
Whereas Smallwood receives much more of the ball and moves it onto those wide areas where you’ll find Patrick and Norman overlapping the wide forwards.
Playing almost as a one and a one rather than a two in midfield does allow Crosby’s side to become overrun in midfield if their opponents playing the modern 4-3-3 or 4-2-3-1.
This is therefore a result of their 49.7% possession. It also means that when the side attack they really attack, having six men pushing forward. This will be the reason that they’ve scored 16 goals in 10 games thus far.
However, attacking like this means there will have to be gaps in defence, hence the 15 also conceded in that time.
Attack:
Tranmere play across the line with three up top, Joe Ironside played alongside Sol Solomon and Josh Davison in their last league game away to Bromley.
However midweek action saw Connor Jennings and Charlie Whittaker come into the side in place for Solomon and Ironside. Whittaker scored two and scored a 9.0 on Fotmob.
Whitaker has played nine matches this season, scoring two and assisting two. His final product needs work, with only 21.4% of his shots being on target, however his overall play is exciting, and he gets into the right areas.
Heat map vs Barrow.Source: Fotmob
This season’s shot map Source: Sofascore
With Josh Davison and Connor Jennings being the two that played behind Whitaker in midweek, maybe they shouldn’t try and fix what’s not broken.
Being the first game since August that the Rovers have won, the trio should be given another chance to prove themselves in this struggling Tranmere side.
The full line-up:
