Tom Aspinall is preparing to defend his UFC Heavyweight title for the first time this weekend against French kickboxer Ciryl Gane.

The Wigan-born heavyweight (15-3, 8-1 UFC) trains at Evolution Fitness in St Helens and will enter the Octagon for the first time since July 2024.

That was when he defended his then-interim championship against Curtis Blaydes who, albeit through an early knee injury, was the sole blemish on Aspinall’s UFC record.  

‘The Honey Badger’ was promoted to undisputed champion in June after his long-lasting pursuit of the incumbent Jon Jones came to an end with Jones’ arguably premature retirement.

Gane also held the interim championship until early 2022, when he failed to unify in a decision loss to his former training partner Francis Ngannou.  

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UFC 321: Aspinall vs Gane – who has the advantage? ufc tomaspinall ufc321 merseysportlive fyp

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The bout will see a prominent clash of styles. Aspinall boasts the lowest average fight time in the UFC at 2:02 minutes and has finished all 15 of his professional MMA fights (11 by KO, four by submission). He has only been out of the first round a single time in the promotion, where he promptly submitted Andrei Arlovski within 70 seconds of the horn.

Aspinall/Gane average fight time
Both fighters’ average fight times (in min).
(Aspinall – Red)
(Gane – Blue) 

A closer look at ‘Bon Gamin’ (13-2, 10-2 UFC) allows for a glimpse into the obvious game plan for him.

More of a point fighter, he averages 14:15 minutes in the cage and has been the full 25 minutes four times.

At the fight press conferences, he supported the old adage that he will finally be the one to drag Aspinall into deep waters. If he does make it through the opening round, it could arguably be his fight to lose.

Aspinall/Gane comparison per minute
A per-minute comparison between the two heavyweights.
Aspinall (Red)
Gane (Blue)

Regarding output the champion shows his prowess, leading Gane with 8.07 strikes per minute at 67% accuracy to his 5.26 at a 61% accuracy.

The stat makes for rather alarming reading when you realise Aspinall only has just over three and a half minutes of cage time in his past three fights.

Both heavyweights have been labelled as uncharacteristic for the division given their speed, timing and technical ability with the bout widely accepted as between the two most technically proficient strikers in the weight class.  

A spanner in the works for the challenger is the more forgotten fact of Aspinall’s capabilities on the mat.

He is a Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt and has teaches classes at his gym in St Helens under the guise of Aspinall BJJ. He has a 100% accuracy on takedowns and takedown defence. Gane boasts a more minimal figure, at 25% accuracy and 43% defence.

Aspinall/Gane percentages
A percentage-based comparison.
(Aspinall- Red)
(Gane -Blue)

The fight going to the ground has been a consistent problem for the challenger. His two losses, both his only undisputed championship fights, came after an injured Ngannou out-grappled him late to a decision win and Jon Jones shut him down in a minute and a half with a guillotine in 2023.

While he claims he has made improvements to his ground game, Aspinall’s reputation speaks for itself, and he should have a noticeable advantage should the contest hit the ground. 

The stats do suggest Aspinall does have an advantage both on the ground and on the feet, but should the onslaught be unsuccessful in the early going, will he be able to fend off the ‘deep waters’ or will someone finally take him out of his element?