Through nine games so far this season, The Reds have already secured five last-gasp winners all coming after the 85th minute. This begs the question: are they simply lucky, or is this a sustainable trend?
Late Goals: A Matter of Fortune or Force?
As shown in the chart below, the majority of the champions’ goals this season have come after the 70th minute. While many point to luck or good fortune, others argue it’s a testament to the Reds’ relentless pressure and world-class attacking depth making late goals inevitable.
This summer, Arne Slot’s side invested heavily in attacking reinforcements:
- Jeremie Frimpong – £29.5M
- Florian Wirtz – £100M (potentially rising to £116.5M)
- Hugo Ekitike – £69M (rising to £79M)
- Alexander Isak – £125M
This firepower may be part of the reason why the reigning champions seem capable of pulling victory from the jaws of defeat, but what do the numbers say?
Expected Goals vs Reality
Across their first nine games in all competitions, the Reds have outperformed their xG (expected goals) significantly. They’ve won four matches on xG, drawn three, and lost two. Based purely on xG, they should be sitting on around nine points in the league but instead, they’ve overperformed by six points and currently top the table two points clear of title rivals Arsenal.
According to the FotMob xG table, the Reds sit in 8th place – an unflattering reflection of their underlying metrics: FotMob xG Table
Is There Cause for Concern?
What does this mean for the 20-time league champions going forward? It could suggest a few things. First, this summer saw 15 players depart, including long-serving figures like Trent Alexander-Arnold and Luis Diaz, while 12 new arrivals joined the squad. This kind of turnover can disrupt cohesion and balance.
Digging deeper, the numbers might give Slot and his staff some cause for concern. With Arsenal hot on their heels, Slots men must fine-tune their system because right now, several players are overperforming their xG and essentially bailing the team out. This kind of overperformance isn’t something that can be counted on long-term.
Then vs Now: Comparing Championship Seasons
Comparing this season’s opening nine games with Slot’s title-winning campaign shows a clear contrast. Articles from October 2024 highlighted elite underlying metrics: a high average of expected goals created per game and an average of just 0.75 xG conceded. Back then, the Reds topped the xG table and were bottom in xGA evidence of a dominant side.
Fast forward to 2025, and the story is less convincing. The contrast in performance raises the question: can the champions regain control of their metrics before luck runs out?
Looking Forward
Through sheer star power, Liverpool will be teetering on the edge of most silverware up for grabs. But early-season performances indicate that they might fall just short. The reasons for this are not yet clear – high turnover, a title hangover, or perhaps the rebuild season has come a year late.
Whatever the case, for the first time in a long time, Liverpool look vulnerable evidenced by their two losses on the bounce to Crystal Palace and Galatasaray. They will look to steady the ship this week against Chelsea or risk being leapfrogged by Mikel Arteta’s Arsenal.
