Merseyside’s perennial MMA superstar Paddy Pimblett is making a convincing case for a shot at the UFC Lightweight Championship.

His feud with incumbent champion Ilia Topuria looks to soon reach a head, with both mutually calling for a meeting in the Octagon after their years-long war of words. 

Pimblett stormed the cage after his arch-rival’s championship victory in June and this added fuel to his fire.

The faceoff between the two has amassed over a million views and Pimblett’s reaction in the crowd has nearly doubled it.

‘El Matador’ has made it clear he only wants Pimblett, saying: “If you’re ready, I’m here.”  

‘The Baddy’ is the former Cage Warriors featherweight champion, known for his unorthodox striking, snappy submissions and outspoken personality. He entered the UFC in late 2021, securing a first-round knockout win over Luigi Vendramini and has continued his unblemished run, amassing a 7-0 record in the four years of his tenure.

His most recent victory, an April knockout of former Bellator lightweight champion Michael Chandler, saw him make a very compelling case for entry into the title conversation. 

With the 30-year-old Liverpudlian undeniably finding his way to the forefront of British MMA, a glance back a few years shows the fork in the road for his career which, at the drop of a hat, could have seen him on a different path. 

In December 2022, Pimblett’s fight with American wrestler Jared Gordon saw immense controversy. A close decision went to ‘The Baddy’ and put him under widespread scrutiny, with MMA fans across the world voicing their belief he should not have had his hand raised.  

Mersey Sport Live undertook a round-by round analysis of the fight and this brings together an interesting retrospective conclusion.

MMA is scored by what is known as a 10-points must system. The winner of a round will get 10 points to their opponent’s nine, with the loser potentially having their score lowered to eight if the fight is nearly called to a halt or the winner convincingly dominates. The winner of the round is determined on the criteria of effective striking and grappling, with aggression and control time also impactful on the scoring.  

The first round of the fight, staged in Las Vegas on the UFC 282 card, saw effectively every available metric give the edge against Pimblett.

Gordon’s forward pressure was the key in this regard. Pimblett spent the round effectively throwing the kitchen sink at his opponent, who stood, absorbed and fired back much more accurately. A failed takedown at the end of the round saw the Merseyside native in bottom position after a flailing start.

Paddy Pimblett vs. Jared Gordon Significant Strikes graph
Pimblett/Gordon strike differential in the 2022 fight. Stats from UFCstats.com

 

The most important word here is effectiveness. The scorecards should be determined by who makes the most of their moments and has more successes on the feet and on the ground. Pimblett struck at a 40% rate to Gordon’s 60%, had no control time and managed less overall significant strikes (32-29). Two of three judges ringside scored the round for Pimblett.

Pimblett/Gordon Takedown defence graph
Takedwon defence and successes between the two fighters in 2022. Stats from UFCstats.com

 

The second round was the one that was understandably scored in favour of Pimblett, despite it being close. He outstruck Gordon 28 – 24 (significant strikes) and reduced his opponent’s accuracy to 52%, with his remaining at 40%. A failed submission attempt from the Scouser reflected a better turnout on the ground, despite ceding nearly two minutes of control time.

Again, effectiveness is the key. Pimblett looked the more threatening fighter with Gordon seemingly content to pad forward, not looking for effective striking or grappling. A rouse of the crowd at the bell even pulled the eye test to Pimblett’s favour. Every judge scored the round for ‘The Baddy’, putting him up 2-0 and even at 1-1 across the scorecards.  

An uneventful coast in the final round from Gordon saw him hold Pimblett against the fence for almost four minutes. Gordon had a 100% accuracy on his strikes and barely gave the Merseyside-native a breath, despite a whiff of a late rally that was fairly comprehensively snuffed out at the bell. Stats-wise, a no brainer.  

Pimblett/Gordon Control Time
The differential in control time between Pimblett and Gordon. Stats from UFCstats.com

Given that Pimblett is given the win, the ending of him taking the back of Gordon did make a fair case for the round, but it’s not necessarily convincing.

Gordon’s control time was effectively just stalling against the cage, but the domination involved in the two takedowns (he dunked Pimblett on his head like a soldier into an egg) is hard to miss. It’s a tough round to score given neither fighter made much of a case, but does control time constitute effective grappling? If yes, the fight should go to Gordon. If no, Pimblett’s grappling isn’t much better in his more limited moments.

Overall, this was a hard round to score for Pimblett.  

Pimblett/Gordon Strike Differential
Head/body/legs comparison in strikes between Pimblett and Gordon. Stats from UFCstats.com

One judge did somehow score the round in Pimblett’s favour, leaving him with a 29-28 victory across all scorecards. Twenty-three of 24 media outlets scored the round against him, and, to reiterate, every available metric does point to him coming up short. Eleven of the media outlets didn’t even give him a round. 

 Pimblett took a leave of absence after the fight to have ankle surgery after suffering a serious ligament injury in the fight.

He returned to competition a year later, defeating former interim lightweight champion Tony Ferguson. ‘The Baddy’ has won convincingly in two more bouts afterwards as well, propelling him forward with a blockbuster with Topuria in his sights.

He has undeniably rightfully cemented his place in contention at the top of the 155-pound division, but looking back, has he got away with one? He remains undefeated in the UFC, but the claims of the fight being a ‘win with an asterisk’ are, frankly, fair.