Liverpool slumped to the bottom of the Women’s Super League despite their determined draw with Chelsea, but the data suggests they are improving.
The Reds are yet to taste victory in the league this season under Gareth Taylor since his arrival in the summer. However, they are currently unbeaten in two games ahead of an away trip to Arsenal this weekend and enjoyed a win an emphatic 4-1 win in the Women’s League Cup at the weekend.
Their recent change to a 4-2-3-1 has helped revitalise the attack. In two of their last three games they have produced an expected goals figure of 1.3 per game, compared to a total of just 1.1 expected goals over the previous three WSL fixtures.
Against Chelsea, Liverpool produced more shots on target than the champions and restricted them to just one shot on goal – the early strike from Alyssa Thompson. After a difficult start, Liverpool tightened their structure, frustrated the visitors and created threat through transition moments.
Beata Olsson’s equaliser came precisely through this pattern. The data suggests that Liverpool could have had more in recent weeks, but it also reveals why results have not matched performances.
This pattern has become familiar, Liverpool demonstrate solidarity for large spells, yet decisive moments continue to go against them. They have conceded 14 goals in eight league games, despite only 10.9 expected goals against, meaning the defence is conceding more than the quality of chances would suggest. In simple terms, they are conceding goals they statistically should not be conceding.
Another layer of the data adds further context. Liverpool commit just 6.0 fouls per match, the lowest figure in the WSL, making them statistically the division’s cleanest side. Yet they still concede around 1.5 goals per game, indicating that when fouls or defensive actions do occur, they often come in high-risk areas or crucial moments. This helps explain why relatively minor lapses have led to disproportionately damaging outcomes.
The numbers also show Liverpool are fouled more frequently than they foul others (5.75 compared with 8.63 per game), suggesting the issue is not a lack of discipline but the timing and impact of key defensive moments.
Coaches working within the game view these trends clearly. Liverpool Feds analyst George Weaver said: “Properly understood and caveated data will always show fair reflections of performance, but I do think the sparsity of available data in the women’s game makes it more difficult to create benchmarks to measure yourself against. As does the often-wider gap between teams within a given division in the women’s game at the moment.”
He added: “With the game’s rapid quality improvements and professionalising down the pyramid, those benchmarks also change quickly, which makes using the data properly a more complex task.
“Football is about moments. It’s such a low scoring sport, you can win or lose in a split second, no matter your performance level.
“The best way to review and plan performances is to ensure your team creates more finishing opportunities and limit’s the opponents.
“This comes from the build-up and out of possession structures you build, and how you control the balance between risk and reward in your systems.”
This perspective reflects Liverpool’s season. Their structure is creating chances, their defensive organisation is largely stable and their overall play is putting them in strong positions. It’s the decisive moments which are letting them down.
This season, the margins in the WSL are extremely tight. Teams are only separated by a few points, meaning a couple of wins could push Liverpool up the table quickly. The performances like the draw against Chelsea suggest that they are capable when their shape and intensity align.
There are clear signs of progression. Liverpool are playing more comfortably, their build-up structure is improving and individual performances, particularly among their Swedish contingent, are becoming more consistent. The underlying direction of travel is positive despite their low league position.
Liverpool’s task is now straightforward but significant – cut out the errors and turn these efforts into victories. If their statistical trends continue, the wins will undoubtedly follow.
